Case Study: Potential U.S. TikTok Ban

Case Study: Potential U.S. TikTok Ban

Ban could migrate $12B-$16B in advertising revenue to other ad channels
Potential U.S. TikTok Ban

On January 17, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously upheld a federal law requiring China-based ByteDance to divest its ownership of TikTok by January 19, 2025, or face an effective ban of the platform in the U.S. This call for a divestiture stems from national security concerns over TikTok’s data collection practices and its ties to China. Pending divestiture of ownership, the TikTok ban requires final approval from President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20, 2025.

 

TikTok Ad Spend Migration

A U.S. TikTok ban could result in advertisers migrating their $12.3 billion in TikTok ad spend to other advertising channels. If migrated based on 2024 total media ad spend, Digital would capture the largest share with ~$9.7 billion, but other channels would also benefit, with out of home (OOH) capturing ~$290 million.ª

TikTok attracted advertisers with its broad reach of ~100 million U.S. users in 2024. In addition to other social media platforms, advertisers will seek to shift dollars to fast-growing channels, such as retail media, that can provide highly-tailored ads. For additional insights and more, visit our Media team.

 

Source: SCOTUS blog, EMARKETER and publicly available information.
a) EMARKETER Forecast, November 2024. Distributed based on 2024 total media ad spend of ~$395 billion and ad spend percentages across major advertising channels.
b) EMARKETER Forecast, November 2024. Represents TikTok ad revenues. Figures are net of traffic acquisition costs and excludes payments to influencers or other creators to produce sponsored content.
c) EMARKETER Forecast, November 2024. Excludes TikTok ad revenues.
d) EMARKETER Forecast, December 2024. Represents omnichannel retail media ad spend.

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